I publish a market report every quarter because the Miami condo market moves faster than in most comparable cities and the information environment is messier — developer PR, realtor marketing, and media coverage all have incentives that don’t always align with what buyers actually need to know. Here’s my honest read on where the market stands as we move into spring 2025.
The Headline Number: Prices Are Still Rising, But the Pace Is Slowing
Miami-Dade County median condo prices have continued rising year-over-year, but the rate of appreciation has moderated significantly from the extraordinary 20-30% annual gains of 2021-2022. Current year-over-year price growth in the $500K+ segment is running approximately 6-9% depending on the submarket and product type. This is healthy appreciation — above inflation, above the national average — but no longer the fever pitch that characterized the pandemic era. Buyers who waited for a crash have not been rewarded; buyers who bought in 2020-2022 have seen substantial gains.
By Neighborhood
Brickell: Still the most liquid and actively transacting submarket in the county. Median asking prices for resale condos are $760K for one-bedrooms, $1.2M for two-bedrooms. New construction pre-sales are stratospherically above resale — Cipriani and St. Regis pre-sales are running $2,000-$3,500 per square foot, which sets comps that don’t exist in the resale market yet but will pressure it upward as delivery approaches. Days on market for well-priced product: under 45 days. The market is tight.
Edgewater: Somewhat better value on a per-square-foot basis, with median resales running $580K for one-bedrooms, $950K for two-bedrooms. The neighborhood’s relative lack of walkable amenities relative to Brickell accounts for the pricing gap. New supply at Elysee, Missoni Baia, and the Paraiso buildings has been absorbing at healthy rates. The bay views in Edgewater are genuinely better than comparable product in Brickell, and this is a market where I see value.
Wynwood/Midtown: The residential market in Wynwood proper is nascent — very few resale condos exist in what is still predominantly a commercial neighborhood. The pre-construction activity is more interesting. Arlo Wynwood, Nomad Residences, and several other projects targeting the $500K-$750K range are the emerging story. These are smaller units at lower absolute price points aimed at a buyer who prioritizes the Wynwood neighborhood lifestyle over square footage.
Downtown Core: The area immediately around Bayside Marketplace and the American Airlines Arena is seeing continued development pressure. The MIAMI Worldcenter project is transformative for the eastern end of the downtown core, adding residential towers, retail, and hotel capacity to an area that was essentially underutilized land. Resale prices in older downtown towers are lower than the Brickell-Edgewater corridor — a one-bedroom can be found in the $400K-$500K range — which is attracting investors and first-time buyers priced out of the more desirable neighborhoods.
Inventory: Still Historically Low
The inventory situation that has kept prices elevated persists. Total resale condo inventory in Miami-Dade is below its 5-year average, and in the upper price points — $800K+ — we’re seeing months-of-supply figures that indicate a clear seller’s market (under 4 months). The new construction pipeline will eventually add supply, but the gap between current activity and delivery is measured in years. Buyers looking for any type of pricing leverage from market conditions are still not finding it in the premium segments.
What to Watch in 2025
Three things will shape the back half of the year. First, interest rates: if the Fed cuts further from current levels, demand will accelerate as buyers who’ve been on the sidelines re-enter the market. Second, the international buyer mix: Latin American buyers (primarily from Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and Argentina) remain significant, and currency stability in those countries directly affects Miami demand. Third, the insurance situation: Florida’s homeowner’s insurance market has stabilized somewhat after the post-Hurricane Ian crisis, but premiums in Miami-Dade are still running 30-50% above 2020 levels, and this is a meaningful additional carrying cost that buyers are incorporating into their purchase decisions.
Jack’s Bottom Line
I’m not going to tell you to buy or not to buy — that depends on your specific situation, timeline, and goals. What I will say is that anyone waiting for Miami condo prices to meaningfully decline before buying has been wrong for four consecutive years, and the structural factors (strong employment growth, net positive domestic and international migration, constrained land supply, continued new-money influx) that are driving prices upward haven’t changed. If the math works for you at today’s prices and rates, the market evidence suggests you’re not buying into a bubble.